Finding the correct answer can be complex and complicated, but traders often use the moving average to make things easier. Averages how they work and can be used in forex trading. It will be easy to understand if we explain everything in simple words.
What does a Moving Average mean?
Moving averages are numbers that help smooth out price data so that trends over a specific time frame can be seen. Traders can use the line made by averaging the prices to find trends, make choices, and guess how prices will move. To see the moving average, you add up all of a currency pair’s ending prices over a specific period and then divide that number by the number of prices.
Many kinds of moving averages
A moving average can differ but is most often used in forex trade.
Average that moves slowly over time
Most people can understand the Simple Moving Average. It takes the last prices of two currencies at the end of a certain period, adds them up, and then divides them by the number of periods. In this case, a 10-day SMA adds up the last ten days’ ending prices and divides that number by 10.
EMA stands for exponential moving average.
A little more work goes into the Population Moving Average. New prices are given more weight, making new information more sensitive. In other words, the EMA responds to changes in price more quickly than the SMA. A smoothing factor determines how much weight to give to recent prices.
As a Forex trader, why should you use moving averages?
Traders like moving averages because they help them spot trends and make intelligent choices. Because of these things, traders use them:
Finding the Trend: Moving averages help buyers determine which direction the trend is going. An increase is shown by a moving average that is going up. It shows a decline if it is falling.
Moving averages can be used as both support and resistance. Support is a price level at which the currency tends to stop dropping, and resistance is a price level at which the currency tends to stop rising. Traders use them all the time to guess where prices might change.
Signals to Enter and Leave a Deal: Moving averages help traders decide when to enter or leave a deal. For example, a buy cue is given when it goes below. It’s a sign to sell when it goes below.
How to Figure Out Moving Averages
Let’s look at a simple case for a 5-day SMA and EMA.
Making a SMA (Simple Moving Average)
Let’s examine a currency pair that has closed at 1.1500, 1.1520, 1.1480, 1.1490, and 1.1510 over five days.
Here’s how to find the 5-day SMA:
Add the prices at the end: 5.7500 = 1.1500 + 1.1520 + 1.1480 + 1.1490 + 1.1510
Split it up by the number of days: 5.7500 / 5 = 1.1500
The 5-day SMA is 1.1500, then.
How to Figure Out an Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The EMA is trickier to understand because it examines recent prices more closely. First, we need to find the ratio, which is 2 / (number of periods + 1). This is also known as the smoothing factor. Two divided by five plus one equals 0.3333 for a five-day EMA.
The EMA is the next thing we do. We use the SMA of the first five days for the first EMA number. For the following days, we use this formula:
The EMA is found by multiplying the closing price by the smoothing factor plus the previous EMA.
EMA = (Closing Price – Previous EMA) x Smoothing Factor + Previous EMA
1.1500 is the first EMA number and the SMA for the first five days. The price at the end of the sixth day is 1.1530. To figure out the EMA, you would need to:
EMA = (1.1530 – 1.1500)²0.3333 + 1.1500 EMA = (1.1530 – 1.1500)×0.3333 + 1.1500 EMA = 0.0030²0.3333 + 1.1500 EMA = 0.0030×0.3333 + 1.1500 EMA = 0.0010 + 1.1500 EMA = 0.0010 + 1.1500 EMA = 1.1510 EMA = 1.1510
For the sixth day, the EMA is 1.1510.
How to Trade Forex with Moving Averages
Moving averages can be used to improve trading tactics in several ways. These are some popular ways:
1. Following the trend
If you want to use moving averages simply, follow the directions. This means the price goes up when it is above the moving average. If the price is below, the direction will go down. When the price is above the moving average, traders might buy; when it is below, they might sell.
2. Crossovers of Moving Means
Using two moving averages, one short-term and one long-term, is a common approach—the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA are often chosen. A “golden cross” happens when the short-term SMA exceeds the long-term SMA. This is a sign to buy. It is a sell signal when it goes below. This is called a “death cross.”
Support and resistance that change over time
Moving averages can also be used as levels of resistance and support that change over time. Traders want the price to hit the moving average line and then bounce back down. A rising moving average can be used as a support level if the price keeps going back and forth. It works as a resistance level if it keeps hitting a moving average going down.
4. Moving average ranges
A moving average envelope sets bands at a certain distance above and below a moving average line. A fraction of the moving average is often used to determine this distance. Traders use these bands to tell when prices are too high or too low. This means the market is too bought; it could be too sold when it hits the lower band.
Moving averages have both pros and cons.
Here are some good and bad points:
Pros
Moving averages are simple to understand and figure out.
Trend Identifying: They help figure out what the primary trend is.
See the directions.
Cons
Slow Indicator: Since moving averages are based on past prices, they show prices that are more than the present market price.
Whipsaws: When the market is flat, averages can send wrong signs that cause losses.
Not Predictive: They cannot predict what prices will be in the future; instead, they show facts from the past.
How to Get the Most Out of Moving Averages
If you want to use moving averages well in forex trading, remember these things:
Use Moving Averages with Other Indicators: To confirm signs, use moving averages with
Change the time frames: Try different times to see which fits your buying style best. For short-term traders, short-term or 20-day, ten-day averages might work, while 50-day or 200-day moving averages might be better for long-term trading. Keep an eye on the market: Know how the market is generally doing. Moving averages may not function as well in stagnant markets.
Test Your Strategy in the Past: Backrest your approach on past data to see how it works before you use moving averages in actual trading.
Real-Life Examples
Let’s look at a few cases to see how moving averages can be used in forex trading.
Example 1: Following trends with the SMA
Let us say that you trade the EUR/USD pair. You use a SMA of 50 days on your chart. For the past few weeks, the price has been above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This points to an upward trend. To lower your risk, you buy and put your stop loss below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Your trade is still good if the price stays above the 50-day SMA. You close the trade and keep the money you made when the price finally falls below the 50-day SMA.
Using the EMA to find entry and exit points (Example 2).
This means it’s time to buy. You put in a buy order and keep it open if the 10-day10-day EMA exceeds the 50-day50-day EMA. After some days, the ten10-day EMA falls below the 50-day EMA, making a “death cross.” This means there is a chance to sell, so you can get out of the trade and keep your gains.
In conclusion
Moving averages are a vital tool in forex trading that can help traders spot trends, find support and resistance levels, and get signals to buy and sell. They give a better picture of the customer direction by clearing out price data. But this is crucial to keep in mind.